中國在哥本哈根全球氣候峰會上不容小視﹐中國官員正給美國和其它富裕國家施壓﹐要求其接受新的限制其排放的條款﹐並繼續對貧窮國家採納清潔能源技術的做法予以補貼。中國是世界上最大的碳排放國。人們不太瞭解的是﹐中國現在正在成為其中一些解決辦法的發源地。中國的目標面臨著巨大挑戰。中國最終可能只是成為一個低成本的生產基地﹐而不是創新的發源地。更糟的是﹐它在降低成本上的努力可能會扼殺海外的創新。
中國在減少碳排放的道路上還有很長的路要走。對於在為期兩年的清理過程中關閉的每家過時的發電廠﹐它又新產生了大約兩倍於此的發電能力。甚至情況更好一些的發電廠也運行不善﹐因為公司的負責人不願支付清理排放的費用。
在對抗全球變暖的鬥爭中﹐最大的收獲中將有一部分來自清理燃煤電廠的碳排放。中國和美國總計佔全球煤炭儲量的44%﹐並且不打算放棄這種廉價可靠的電力來源。根據美國政府的預測﹐全球煤炭使用量到2030年時可能會增加近50%。
中國政府週一表示﹐將通過加快保障性住房建設以及城市和國有工礦棚戶區改造來努力遏制部分城市房價過快上漲的勢頭。 中國國務院(State Council)的上述決定並新政﹐但中國最高領導層似乎越來越擔心長期通貨膨脹壓力的不斷積聚。在政府政策刺激下的信貸熱以及大規模公共支出促使中國經濟得以快速復甦﹐但這也引發了上述的通貨膨脹壓力擔憂。中國政府目前正面對公眾對房地產市場過熱所表現出的日益加重的焦慮情緒﹐以及股市潛在的資產泡沫問題﹐這些最終可能會威脅到社會穩定。
地產的政策重心將更側重於鼓勵政府補貼住房的建設和銷售﹐而不是普通住房和更昂貴的商品房。
2010年2月11日 星期四
哥本哈根氣候變化會議 丹麥銀行系統備受重視
哥本哈根氣候變化會議 丹麥銀行系統備受重視
經濟日報 2009/12/24轉寄列印
■項家麟■
正當丹麥首都哥本哈根舉行聯合國氣候變化會議如火如荼之際，丹麥銀行系統再度備受重視。特別是在經歷全球金融風暴之際，丹麥的金融體系卻依舊穩健，成為不少富豪大戶們理想安全的資金存放地。
連續兩年丹麥獲選為全世界最快樂的國家，當世界只注意到丹麥人如何享受人生的生活態度時，全球富豪正默默的將資金移往這個快樂的國家。根據歐元雜誌（Euromoney）調查，丹麥是全球投資環境評比第一名的國家，在丹麥，利息所得和資本收益不被徵稅，且政府嚴格執行保密法，保證客戶資金安全的金融法律，這些都是吸引富豪將資金移轉到此的原因。
當政府力量開始伸進人民的生活時，保密似乎成了有錢人最在意的事情。丹麥哥本哈根私人銀行總經理MichaelChristensen提到，過去以來，亞洲人民一直不重視隱密性，加上政府沒有保密法，導致有錢人的資金移出自己國家。而在美國政府追查瑞士稅務，全球開始討伐境外免稅天堂之際，丹麥健全的金融體制卻在這時候脫穎而出。MichaelChristensen提到，丹麥人的稅務非常高，但是針對丹麥以外的居民在丹麥銀行帳戶，政府不會課徵任何稅務，這是我們最大的優勢之一。
丹麥哥本哈根銀行四年前，開始針對亞洲國家人民提供私人銀行服務。該行大中華區代表蔡幼青指出，我們和來自美國的華人資產管理公司-華家族辦公室合作，讓處於地球另一端的華人有機會去接觸和理解我們銀行。
蔡幼青表示，近來由於具有雙重國籍的亞洲人急於解決稅務問題，龐大的業務量，已讓我們必須再應徵銀行家，來提供亞洲客戶的服務。我們不但協助客戶投資全世界的金融商品及提供最好的存款利率，我們也開始為亞洲客戶提供信託及家族基金會設立的服務。
2010年開始，丹麥哥根本哈根銀行結合華家族辦公室，提供客戶Family Office的服務。蔡幼青提到，當今有錢人的需求越來越廣泛，私人銀行服務已經無法滿足他們，我們將針對亞洲的家族客戶，推出Family Office的服務，我想，最好的時機已經出現。
由於今年丹麥舉行聯合國氣候變化會議，才讓全球再度注意到這個國家的金融服務，一直以來處於低調的丹麥，將在此時開始，藉由金融服務發光發熱。丹麥哥本哈根私人銀行暨華家族辦公室可聯絡：aipt@hwafamily.com、Alfred.tsai@finansbanken.dk。
經濟日報 2009/12/24轉寄列印
■項家麟■
正當丹麥首都哥本哈根舉行聯合國氣候變化會議如火如荼之際，丹麥銀行系統再度備受重視。特別是在經歷全球金融風暴之際，丹麥的金融體系卻依舊穩健，成為不少富豪大戶們理想安全的資金存放地。
連續兩年丹麥獲選為全世界最快樂的國家，當世界只注意到丹麥人如何享受人生的生活態度時，全球富豪正默默的將資金移往這個快樂的國家。根據歐元雜誌（Euromoney）調查，丹麥是全球投資環境評比第一名的國家，在丹麥，利息所得和資本收益不被徵稅，且政府嚴格執行保密法，保證客戶資金安全的金融法律，這些都是吸引富豪將資金移轉到此的原因。
當政府力量開始伸進人民的生活時，保密似乎成了有錢人最在意的事情。丹麥哥本哈根私人銀行總經理MichaelChristensen提到，過去以來，亞洲人民一直不重視隱密性，加上政府沒有保密法，導致有錢人的資金移出自己國家。而在美國政府追查瑞士稅務，全球開始討伐境外免稅天堂之際，丹麥健全的金融體制卻在這時候脫穎而出。MichaelChristensen提到，丹麥人的稅務非常高，但是針對丹麥以外的居民在丹麥銀行帳戶，政府不會課徵任何稅務，這是我們最大的優勢之一。
丹麥哥本哈根銀行四年前，開始針對亞洲國家人民提供私人銀行服務。該行大中華區代表蔡幼青指出，我們和來自美國的華人資產管理公司-華家族辦公室合作，讓處於地球另一端的華人有機會去接觸和理解我們銀行。
蔡幼青表示，近來由於具有雙重國籍的亞洲人急於解決稅務問題，龐大的業務量，已讓我們必須再應徵銀行家，來提供亞洲客戶的服務。我們不但協助客戶投資全世界的金融商品及提供最好的存款利率，我們也開始為亞洲客戶提供信託及家族基金會設立的服務。
2010年開始，丹麥哥根本哈根銀行結合華家族辦公室，提供客戶Family Office的服務。蔡幼青提到，當今有錢人的需求越來越廣泛，私人銀行服務已經無法滿足他們，我們將針對亞洲的家族客戶，推出Family Office的服務，我想，最好的時機已經出現。
由於今年丹麥舉行聯合國氣候變化會議，才讓全球再度注意到這個國家的金融服務，一直以來處於低調的丹麥，將在此時開始，藉由金融服務發光發熱。丹麥哥本哈根私人銀行暨華家族辦公室可聯絡：aipt@hwafamily.com、Alfred.tsai@finansbanken.dk。
Swiss Annuities And Life Insurance: Secure Returns, Asset Protection, And Privacy
Swiss Annuities And Life Insurance: Secure Returns, Asset Protection, And Privacy
Gantenbein / 著
Swiss Annuities
Despite a recent pact between Switzerland and the United States to share tax evasion information, Swiss franc fixed annuities have been attracting a lot of U.S. dollars of late. Sources estimate that Americans have been putting about $2 billion annually into the Swiss insurance instruments, due to the falling dollar, inflation fears and the need to protect assets from creditors.
It’s no wonder. While U.S. fixed deferred annuities yield about 2 percent to 3 percent, Swiss franc fixed annuities have generated a total return of more than 8.5 percent annually over the past five years, according to Swiss Guard International, a Zurich-based brokerage firm. Of course, this factors in currency appreciation against the U.S. dollar.
“Our business and business of other Swiss brokers has increased,” says Darrell Aviss, Swiss Guard International managing director. “We have a lot of business people, professionals and doctors that are investing because they want to be protected from frivolous lawsuits.”
Whether this trend will continue is uncertain, however, after a number of Swiss banks have stopped accepting deposits from, or opening accounts, for U.S. customers, according to a July 21 article in The Wall Street Journal. Swiss insurance companies are being cautious due to the problems with UBS, a Swiss investment bank that had been under investigation by the IRS. The bank and the U.S government are negotiating a settlement. The bank was ordered to provide information to the IRS on about 52,000 U.S. clients who may have been involved in U.S. income tax evasion. The two countries agreed in June to fight tax evasion through information sharing. Nevertheless, the Swiss Government said it would not permit UBS to turn over the names.
As is well known, the Swiss have a tradition of secrecy when it comes to dealing with investors’ money. In Switzerland, there are no foreign reporting requirements or forced repatriation of funds. Under Swiss law, an annuity cannot be seized by any court-ordered collection procedures instigated by creditors.
Although Swiss franc investments may be attractive in uncertain economic times, only a fistful of insurance companies can issue fixed rate annuities to Americans. Among those: Pax Insurance, Basel; Generali-Life in Adliswil; Forces-Vives, Lausanne, and Swiss Life, Zurich.
Unlike U.S. fixed annuities, Swiss fixed annuities are not tax-deferred. A U.S. taxpayer owes taxes on both income and any foreign currency value appreciation. However, Swiss annuities are not subject to Swiss taxes. And they are exempt from the 35 percent withholding tax that Switzerland imposes on account interest received by foreigners.
Swiss franc fixed annuities lack the 10 percent penalty that U.S. annuities have on withdrawals before age 59 ½. Plus a Swiss-U.S. double taxation treaty eliminates the 1 percent U.S. excise tax on the purchase of foreign insurance products.
Swiss insurance companies are not currently required to issue 1099 interest and dividend forms to the U.S. IRS. Nevertheless, policyholders just report fixed annuity income and currency gains on their U.S. tax returns, based on IRS rule 1.1275-1.
Although more details need to be worked out, a recent U.S. Swiss agreement requires the countries to share information on potential tax evaders and could change the way taxes are reported. Leonard Witman, a Florham Park, N.J. estate tax attorney and Rutgers University law professor, predicts discussions between the United States and Swiss could lead Swiss insurance companies to issue IRS 1099 forms on U.S. accounts.
“The (tax) information between the U.S. and Swiss is going to be expanded tremendously," Witman says. “We [the U.S. government] can’t raise taxes, but they can raise revenue by increasing enforcement. The IRS is hiring new agents to raise revenue.”
For clients concerned about how the IRS views offshore investments, Aviss says Swiss variable annuities may be a better alternative. A Swiss variable annuity can be structured to adhere to U.S. tax laws, complete with IRS 1099 forms. The money grows tax-deferred in international mutual funds, fixed income and other investments, such as hedge funds.
Swiss insurance companies don’t publish information on U.S. dollars moving into Swiss investments.
Overall, 68.6 percent of total Swiss life insurance premiums, which tallied $125 billion in 2009, represent foreign money, according to a 2009 report by the Zurich-based trade organization, the Swiss Insurance Association. It is estimated that Americans have been putting about $2 billion annually into Swiss franc annuities since 2004 due to the falling dollar, inflation fears and the desire to protect assets from creditors.
Swiss franc fixed annuities pay a guaranteed rate of about 2 percent. The guaranteed rate is determined by the Swiss government bond rate when the annuity contract is issued. Annuity interest earnings are supplemented by profit-sharing dividends. Historically, the average annual dividend rate paid on Swiss Franc annuities has ranged from 1 percent to 5 percent. If the Swiss franc rises in value versus the dollar, total return is higher. Of course, the total return can drop substantially if the U.S. dollar rises in value.
Minimum initial investments in Swiss annuities range from $20,000 to $50,000. Account opening forms are sent to the Swiss insurance company via a Swiss brokerage firm. Swiss insurance company premiums are paid via international wire transfers.
A fee-only registered investment advisor can refer a client to a Swiss insurance broker, such as SwissGuard, JML or BFI Consultants, all Zurich, and Volcon in Zug for a negotiated referral fee. But most U.S. broker-dealers prohibit registered reps from accepting referral fees.
“Swiss francs are considered one of the world’s steadiest currencies,” Aviss says. ”Switzerland also avoids government deficits and the government unofficially backs its currency over 100 percent with gold bullion.” Swiss insurance companies, he says, are required to set up separate reserves to back 100 percent of their annuity obligations.
Estate planning attorneys often recommend Swiss franc insurance products to the well-heeled for asset protection. However, Swiss fraudulent conveyance laws have a one-year statute of limitations for property transfers, according to Jacob Stein, partner with Klueger & Stein, Los Angeles. Plus blanket asset protection under Swiss law applies only when the annuity policy incorporates an appropriate beneficiary designation.
Before wiring money overseas, Witman advises that financial advisors talk to a local attorney. Many state annuities already are protected from creditor claims. “A Swiss annuity is just another annuity,” he says. It has to be evaluated as an investment and the financial strength of the insurance company.”
Other caveats to investing Swiss annuities:
· Swiss annuities may come with back-end surrender charges if your client cashes out the annuity before maturity.
· Legal fees and court costs could prove extra costly and cumbersome if you ever have a problem with an insurance company outside the United States.
· Unlike in the United States, there are no independent rating agencies to help you judge a Swiss insurance company’s financial strength.
It’s no wonder. While U.S. fixed deferred annuities yield about 2 percent to 3 percent, Swiss franc fixed annuities have generated a total return of more than 8.5 percent annually over the past five years, according to Swiss Guard International, a Zurich-based brokerage firm. Of course, this factors in currency appreciation against the U.S. dollar.
“Our business and business of other Swiss brokers has increased,” says Darrell Aviss, Swiss Guard International managing director. “We have a lot of business people, professionals and doctors that are investing because they want to be protected from frivolous lawsuits.”
Whether this trend will continue is uncertain, however, after a number of Swiss banks have stopped accepting deposits from, or opening accounts, for U.S. customers, according to a July 21 article in The Wall Street Journal. Swiss insurance companies are being cautious due to the problems with UBS, a Swiss investment bank that had been under investigation by the IRS. The bank and the U.S government are negotiating a settlement. The bank was ordered to provide information to the IRS on about 52,000 U.S. clients who may have been involved in U.S. income tax evasion. The two countries agreed in June to fight tax evasion through information sharing. Nevertheless, the Swiss Government said it would not permit UBS to turn over the names.
As is well known, the Swiss have a tradition of secrecy when it comes to dealing with investors’ money. In Switzerland, there are no foreign reporting requirements or forced repatriation of funds. Under Swiss law, an annuity cannot be seized by any court-ordered collection procedures instigated by creditors.
Although Swiss franc investments may be attractive in uncertain economic times, only a fistful of insurance companies can issue fixed rate annuities to Americans. Among those: Pax Insurance, Basel; Generali-Life in Adliswil; Forces-Vives, Lausanne, and Swiss Life, Zurich.
Unlike U.S. fixed annuities, Swiss fixed annuities are not tax-deferred. A U.S. taxpayer owes taxes on both income and any foreign currency value appreciation. However, Swiss annuities are not subject to Swiss taxes. And they are exempt from the 35 percent withholding tax that Switzerland imposes on account interest received by foreigners.
Swiss franc fixed annuities lack the 10 percent penalty that U.S. annuities have on withdrawals before age 59 ½. Plus a Swiss-U.S. double taxation treaty eliminates the 1 percent U.S. excise tax on the purchase of foreign insurance products.
Swiss insurance companies are not currently required to issue 1099 interest and dividend forms to the U.S. IRS. Nevertheless, policyholders just report fixed annuity income and currency gains on their U.S. tax returns, based on IRS rule 1.1275-1.
Although more details need to be worked out, a recent U.S. Swiss agreement requires the countries to share information on potential tax evaders and could change the way taxes are reported. Leonard Witman, a Florham Park, N.J. estate tax attorney and Rutgers University law professor, predicts discussions between the United States and Swiss could lead Swiss insurance companies to issue IRS 1099 forms on U.S. accounts.
“The (tax) information between the U.S. and Swiss is going to be expanded tremendously," Witman says. “We [the U.S. government] can’t raise taxes, but they can raise revenue by increasing enforcement. The IRS is hiring new agents to raise revenue.”
For clients concerned about how the IRS views offshore investments, Aviss says Swiss variable annuities may be a better alternative. A Swiss variable annuity can be structured to adhere to U.S. tax laws, complete with IRS 1099 forms. The money grows tax-deferred in international mutual funds, fixed income and other investments, such as hedge funds.
Swiss insurance companies don’t publish information on U.S. dollars moving into Swiss investments.
Overall, 68.6 percent of total Swiss life insurance premiums, which tallied $125 billion in 2009, represent foreign money, according to a 2009 report by the Zurich-based trade organization, the Swiss Insurance Association. It is estimated that Americans have been putting about $2 billion annually into Swiss franc annuities since 2004 due to the falling dollar, inflation fears and the desire to protect assets from creditors.
Swiss franc fixed annuities pay a guaranteed rate of about 2 percent. The guaranteed rate is determined by the Swiss government bond rate when the annuity contract is issued. Annuity interest earnings are supplemented by profit-sharing dividends. Historically, the average annual dividend rate paid on Swiss Franc annuities has ranged from 1 percent to 5 percent. If the Swiss franc rises in value versus the dollar, total return is higher. Of course, the total return can drop substantially if the U.S. dollar rises in value.
Minimum initial investments in Swiss annuities range from $20,000 to $50,000. Account opening forms are sent to the Swiss insurance company via a Swiss brokerage firm. Swiss insurance company premiums are paid via international wire transfers.
A fee-only registered investment advisor can refer a client to a Swiss insurance broker, such as SwissGuard, JML or BFI Consultants, all Zurich, and Volcon in Zug for a negotiated referral fee. But most U.S. broker-dealers prohibit registered reps from accepting referral fees.
“Swiss francs are considered one of the world’s steadiest currencies,” Aviss says. ”Switzerland also avoids government deficits and the government unofficially backs its currency over 100 percent with gold bullion.” Swiss insurance companies, he says, are required to set up separate reserves to back 100 percent of their annuity obligations.
Estate planning attorneys often recommend Swiss franc insurance products to the well-heeled for asset protection. However, Swiss fraudulent conveyance laws have a one-year statute of limitations for property transfers, according to Jacob Stein, partner with Klueger & Stein, Los Angeles. Plus blanket asset protection under Swiss law applies only when the annuity policy incorporates an appropriate beneficiary designation.
Before wiring money overseas, Witman advises that financial advisors talk to a local attorney. Many state annuities already are protected from creditor claims. “A Swiss annuity is just another annuity,” he says. It has to be evaluated as an investment and the financial strength of the insurance company.”
Other caveats to investing Swiss annuities:
· Swiss annuities may come with back-end surrender charges if your client cashes out the annuity before maturity.
· Legal fees and court costs could prove extra costly and cumbersome if you ever have a problem with an insurance company outside the United States.
· Unlike in the United States, there are no independent rating agencies to help you judge a Swiss insurance company’s financial strength.
中國面臨人民幣升值壓力和熱錢風險
發改委﹕中國面臨人民幣升值壓力和熱錢風險
2010年01月06日07:18
中國國家發展和改革委員會(National Development and Reform Commission, 簡稱﹕發改委)副主任張曉強表示﹐受美元走弱和發達國家量化寬鬆的貨幣政策影響﹐人民幣面臨新一輪升值壓力﹐可能引發熱錢大規模流入。發改委網站週二發佈了張曉強在一次工作會議上的講話。人民幣升值的國際壓力近幾個月不斷加劇﹐但中國政府卻一直在捍衛其維持人民幣匯率穩定的政策﹐稱該政策有助於世界各國應對金融危機。
張曉強表示﹐受發達國家量化寬鬆的貨幣政策、美元走弱、中國經濟率先復甦等因素影響﹐人民幣面臨新一輪升值壓力﹐可能引發熱錢大規模流入﹐給中國的流動性管理增加困難。張曉強的講話表明了中國政府在制定人民幣匯率政策時面臨的困境﹕中國龐大的貿易順差要求人民幣升值﹐但一旦有政府允許人民幣升值的任何風吹草動﹐都將可能導致大規模的資金流入﹐也就是分析師們所說的2008年上半年發生的情況。張曉強表示﹐中國政府還將鼓勵境內企業積極涉足海外油氣、礦產等領域﹐包括投資資源產品深加工項目﹐並將推出鼓勵境外投資的相關法規。張曉強在發改委負責外資及境外投資事務。
中國政府鼓勵境外投資﹐從一定程度上講是為了獲取資源及先進的技術﹐幫助境內企業通過併購品牌等方式實現境外擴張﹐並抑制因貿易順差及海外資金流入造成的流動性過剩局面。截至去年9月份﹐中國外匯儲備規模高達2.3萬億美元﹐居全球首位。張曉強稱﹐儘管中國的外匯儲備規模不斷擴大﹐但境內企業在向境外擴張時仍面臨融資困境。他表示﹐中國將敦促國內銀行向境外投資提供貸款支持﹐允許一些企業借用成本低於國內的國際商業貸款﹐並允許有實力的符合條件的企業通過發行債券方式到國際金融市場融資。
他還表示﹐預計中國2009年的國內生產總值(GDP)增長8.5%。這與市場對中國去年GDP增幅將超過8%的預期基本一致。在鼓勵外資外商投資方面﹐張曉強表示﹐中國需要保持對外開放﹐但同時要確保國家經濟安全。他舉例稱﹐外資併購國內農業企業﹐可能會給國家經濟發展帶來潛在風險。他表示﹐預計2009年外商在華投資略有下降﹐而中國境外投資額有所增長。他指出﹐中國將繼續支持符合條件的境內企業到境外發行股票並上市﹐鼓勵和引導外商在中國進行創業風險投資和私募股權投資。他還表示﹐中國將完善外債管理。
2010年01月06日07:18
中國國家發展和改革委員會(National Development and Reform Commission, 簡稱﹕發改委)副主任張曉強表示﹐受美元走弱和發達國家量化寬鬆的貨幣政策影響﹐人民幣面臨新一輪升值壓力﹐可能引發熱錢大規模流入。發改委網站週二發佈了張曉強在一次工作會議上的講話。人民幣升值的國際壓力近幾個月不斷加劇﹐但中國政府卻一直在捍衛其維持人民幣匯率穩定的政策﹐稱該政策有助於世界各國應對金融危機。
張曉強表示﹐受發達國家量化寬鬆的貨幣政策、美元走弱、中國經濟率先復甦等因素影響﹐人民幣面臨新一輪升值壓力﹐可能引發熱錢大規模流入﹐給中國的流動性管理增加困難。張曉強的講話表明了中國政府在制定人民幣匯率政策時面臨的困境﹕中國龐大的貿易順差要求人民幣升值﹐但一旦有政府允許人民幣升值的任何風吹草動﹐都將可能導致大規模的資金流入﹐也就是分析師們所說的2008年上半年發生的情況。張曉強表示﹐中國政府還將鼓勵境內企業積極涉足海外油氣、礦產等領域﹐包括投資資源產品深加工項目﹐並將推出鼓勵境外投資的相關法規。張曉強在發改委負責外資及境外投資事務。
中國政府鼓勵境外投資﹐從一定程度上講是為了獲取資源及先進的技術﹐幫助境內企業通過併購品牌等方式實現境外擴張﹐並抑制因貿易順差及海外資金流入造成的流動性過剩局面。截至去年9月份﹐中國外匯儲備規模高達2.3萬億美元﹐居全球首位。張曉強稱﹐儘管中國的外匯儲備規模不斷擴大﹐但境內企業在向境外擴張時仍面臨融資困境。他表示﹐中國將敦促國內銀行向境外投資提供貸款支持﹐允許一些企業借用成本低於國內的國際商業貸款﹐並允許有實力的符合條件的企業通過發行債券方式到國際金融市場融資。
他還表示﹐預計中國2009年的國內生產總值(GDP)增長8.5%。這與市場對中國去年GDP增幅將超過8%的預期基本一致。在鼓勵外資外商投資方面﹐張曉強表示﹐中國需要保持對外開放﹐但同時要確保國家經濟安全。他舉例稱﹐外資併購國內農業企業﹐可能會給國家經濟發展帶來潛在風險。他表示﹐預計2009年外商在華投資略有下降﹐而中國境外投資額有所增長。他指出﹐中國將繼續支持符合條件的境內企業到境外發行股票並上市﹐鼓勵和引導外商在中國進行創業風險投資和私募股權投資。他還表示﹐中國將完善外債管理。
2009年美元的漲與跌
2009年美元的漲與跌
2010年01月07日08:03
在美元以堅挺姿態挺過金融危機後﹐由於投資者重拾風險偏好﹐而且再度緊抓美元的弱點不放﹐美元在2009年曆經起落最終以下跌收場。
由摩根大通(J.P. Morgan Chase)編制的美元兌一籃子16種貨幣的美元指數在去年下跌了5%。這一數據掩蓋了美元匯價的大幅波動：去年春天﹐該指數漲幅一度高達8%﹐而去年下半年美元跌幅一度也達到了這一水平。年底將至時﹐美元展開了一場短暫但有力的反彈：美國的經濟數據意外強勁﹐而且隸屬歐元區的希臘和西班牙的可信度似乎也突然被打上了折扣。對一些投資者來說﹐這一事態加大了美元前景的變數﹐即美元勢必迎來更大的變化。美元不再像金融危機期間那樣只是人們風險承擔意願的象徵﹐而是再一次跟隨美國與其他國家的經濟強弱對比而時漲時落。
巴克萊(Barclays Capital)駐紐約的外匯交易員厄文(Jeremy Urwin)說﹐投資者可能會關注相對經濟表現﹐而不是簡單的冒險或避險策略﹔特別需要指出的是﹐各經濟體之間的利差將在2010年成為匯市首先需要考慮的問題。如果美國經濟能繼續有出人意料的表現﹐而且其他國家也令人失望的話﹐這對美元來說可能構成利好。但是如果美國經濟復蘇乏力﹐而且應對金融危機的種種努力催生出過度的通貨膨脹的話﹐那麼美元可能就沒有好果子吃了。美元在2009年初期銳不可當。當時金融系統仍步履蹣跚、股市持續下挫、經濟領域的壞消息一個接著一個。投資者蜂擁買進美元﹐因為置身於危機中的他們需要找到可能的避風港。然而﹐到了4月份時各國央行的救市努力初見成效﹐投資者也開始將手中現金派上用場﹐因此他們當中有些人就開始減持美元。美元跌勢在秋天有所加劇﹐因為在朝向復蘇邁進的過程中美國似乎是一瘸一拐﹐而其他國家已是大步流星了。舉例來說﹐澳大利亞和挪威屢次加息﹐只為遏制經濟增速﹐而美國聯邦儲備委員會(Fed)仍將利率維持在接近零的水平。
為了刺激經濟活動﹐美聯儲源源不斷地注入廉價現金﹐鼓勵投資者借入美元﹐買進從外匯、股票、黃金到大宗商品的各種投資品。這就是所謂的融資套利交易﹔即投資者以極低的利率借入資金﹐用它們賺取較高的回報。融資套利交易對於投資者在風險偏好上的改變很是敏感﹐因為市場波動可能會讓他們顆粒無收。當投資者感到緊張﹐他們就會買回自己此前借來開展融資套利交易的貨幣。對於美元此番跌勢﹐金融市場似乎只盯住了一點﹐那就是說美元和其他投資品的關係。如果美元疲軟﹐那麼股市、原油、黃金等等都會上漲﹐反之亦然。
德意志銀行(Deutsche Bank)的報告顯示﹐在12月初﹐美元和標準普爾500指數反向而動的程度已是史上未見。用於衡量兩者相互關係的指標顯示美元和股市出現了30多年來的最大走向背離。12月份形勢陡變。美國就業及零售數據好得出人意料﹐同時投資者聽聞信用評級公司因希臘等國難以為繼的大規模赤字而發出了一系列悲觀預測﹐其中希臘的評級還遭到了下調。此外﹐年末時清淡的交投放大了價格變化。在三週時間里﹐歐元兌美元跌去了將近6%。野村證券公司(Nomura Securities)外匯策略師諾迪維格(Jens Nordvig)在近期的一份研究報告中指出﹐得出世界已經改變、美元將長期走強的結論是很誘人的﹐但是﹐宏觀經濟層面的消息遠比價格波動平穩。諾迪維格建議做空美元。12月31日紐約匯市尾盤﹐歐元兌1.4316美元﹐美元較上年同期跌2.4%。不過﹐美元兌93.08日圓﹐較去年上漲了2.6%。曾經在金融危機中遭到重創的澳元和巴西雷亞爾又煥發了生機﹐這兩種貨幣兌美元的漲幅分別達到了26%和33%。
去年美元作為全球儲備貨幣的地位被人們幾度拿出來加以研究。3月份中國央行的非常之舉終於登上了報章頭條﹐即央行行長周小川公開質疑單一儲備貨幣的制度是否理想﹐建議讓此前無人問津的國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)特別提款權擁有更大的發揮空間。俄羅斯和巴西的領導人也對美元獨尊表達了擔憂。不過﹐幾乎沒有人認為美元作為主要儲備貨幣的地位會很快受到沖擊﹐替代品缺乏就是原因之一。在過去幾個月中﹐歐元自身疲態盡顯﹐歐元區內部經濟狀況差異很大﹐比如希臘和德國就大不相同。有些人相信中國的人民幣將在全球金融體系發揮更大作用﹐但那恐怕要等上很多年了。
事實上﹐中國政府堅持將人民幣和美元掛鉤的長期政策。中國曾經在2008年時允許人民幣逐步走強﹐但在2009年里一直將人民幣兌美元匯價保持穩定。這種政策讓中國的鄰國頗為不悅﹐因為這意味著去年下半年人民幣的有效匯率一直在下挫﹐令中國出口商在海外市場擁有了更大的競爭力。
2010年01月07日08:03
在美元以堅挺姿態挺過金融危機後﹐由於投資者重拾風險偏好﹐而且再度緊抓美元的弱點不放﹐美元在2009年曆經起落最終以下跌收場。
由摩根大通(J.P. Morgan Chase)編制的美元兌一籃子16種貨幣的美元指數在去年下跌了5%。這一數據掩蓋了美元匯價的大幅波動：去年春天﹐該指數漲幅一度高達8%﹐而去年下半年美元跌幅一度也達到了這一水平。年底將至時﹐美元展開了一場短暫但有力的反彈：美國的經濟數據意外強勁﹐而且隸屬歐元區的希臘和西班牙的可信度似乎也突然被打上了折扣。對一些投資者來說﹐這一事態加大了美元前景的變數﹐即美元勢必迎來更大的變化。美元不再像金融危機期間那樣只是人們風險承擔意願的象徵﹐而是再一次跟隨美國與其他國家的經濟強弱對比而時漲時落。
巴克萊(Barclays Capital)駐紐約的外匯交易員厄文(Jeremy Urwin)說﹐投資者可能會關注相對經濟表現﹐而不是簡單的冒險或避險策略﹔特別需要指出的是﹐各經濟體之間的利差將在2010年成為匯市首先需要考慮的問題。如果美國經濟能繼續有出人意料的表現﹐而且其他國家也令人失望的話﹐這對美元來說可能構成利好。但是如果美國經濟復蘇乏力﹐而且應對金融危機的種種努力催生出過度的通貨膨脹的話﹐那麼美元可能就沒有好果子吃了。美元在2009年初期銳不可當。當時金融系統仍步履蹣跚、股市持續下挫、經濟領域的壞消息一個接著一個。投資者蜂擁買進美元﹐因為置身於危機中的他們需要找到可能的避風港。然而﹐到了4月份時各國央行的救市努力初見成效﹐投資者也開始將手中現金派上用場﹐因此他們當中有些人就開始減持美元。美元跌勢在秋天有所加劇﹐因為在朝向復蘇邁進的過程中美國似乎是一瘸一拐﹐而其他國家已是大步流星了。舉例來說﹐澳大利亞和挪威屢次加息﹐只為遏制經濟增速﹐而美國聯邦儲備委員會(Fed)仍將利率維持在接近零的水平。
為了刺激經濟活動﹐美聯儲源源不斷地注入廉價現金﹐鼓勵投資者借入美元﹐買進從外匯、股票、黃金到大宗商品的各種投資品。這就是所謂的融資套利交易﹔即投資者以極低的利率借入資金﹐用它們賺取較高的回報。融資套利交易對於投資者在風險偏好上的改變很是敏感﹐因為市場波動可能會讓他們顆粒無收。當投資者感到緊張﹐他們就會買回自己此前借來開展融資套利交易的貨幣。對於美元此番跌勢﹐金融市場似乎只盯住了一點﹐那就是說美元和其他投資品的關係。如果美元疲軟﹐那麼股市、原油、黃金等等都會上漲﹐反之亦然。
德意志銀行(Deutsche Bank)的報告顯示﹐在12月初﹐美元和標準普爾500指數反向而動的程度已是史上未見。用於衡量兩者相互關係的指標顯示美元和股市出現了30多年來的最大走向背離。12月份形勢陡變。美國就業及零售數據好得出人意料﹐同時投資者聽聞信用評級公司因希臘等國難以為繼的大規模赤字而發出了一系列悲觀預測﹐其中希臘的評級還遭到了下調。此外﹐年末時清淡的交投放大了價格變化。在三週時間里﹐歐元兌美元跌去了將近6%。野村證券公司(Nomura Securities)外匯策略師諾迪維格(Jens Nordvig)在近期的一份研究報告中指出﹐得出世界已經改變、美元將長期走強的結論是很誘人的﹐但是﹐宏觀經濟層面的消息遠比價格波動平穩。諾迪維格建議做空美元。12月31日紐約匯市尾盤﹐歐元兌1.4316美元﹐美元較上年同期跌2.4%。不過﹐美元兌93.08日圓﹐較去年上漲了2.6%。曾經在金融危機中遭到重創的澳元和巴西雷亞爾又煥發了生機﹐這兩種貨幣兌美元的漲幅分別達到了26%和33%。
去年美元作為全球儲備貨幣的地位被人們幾度拿出來加以研究。3月份中國央行的非常之舉終於登上了報章頭條﹐即央行行長周小川公開質疑單一儲備貨幣的制度是否理想﹐建議讓此前無人問津的國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)特別提款權擁有更大的發揮空間。俄羅斯和巴西的領導人也對美元獨尊表達了擔憂。不過﹐幾乎沒有人認為美元作為主要儲備貨幣的地位會很快受到沖擊﹐替代品缺乏就是原因之一。在過去幾個月中﹐歐元自身疲態盡顯﹐歐元區內部經濟狀況差異很大﹐比如希臘和德國就大不相同。有些人相信中國的人民幣將在全球金融體系發揮更大作用﹐但那恐怕要等上很多年了。
事實上﹐中國政府堅持將人民幣和美元掛鉤的長期政策。中國曾經在2008年時允許人民幣逐步走強﹐但在2009年里一直將人民幣兌美元匯價保持穩定。這種政策讓中國的鄰國頗為不悅﹐因為這意味著去年下半年人民幣的有效匯率一直在下挫﹐令中國出口商在海外市場擁有了更大的競爭力。